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Pace is settling toward the real league's rhythm

Vol. 21 · Nov 2, 2026. Opening week brings 8121 new games and a clear read on where HoopSim stands. Most of what moved moved toward the real league, and the gaps left are now specific lab projects.

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HoopSim
HOOPSIM · OFFICIAL COLUMN VOL. 21 · NOV 2, 2026
State of
the Game
41449 GAMES · ALL LEAGUES · 22 real-league CHECKS
Dr. PossessionAri Lindqvist · @DrPossession · Engine & realism

Pace is settling toward the real league's rhythm

Opening week brings 8121 new games and a clear read on where HoopSim stands. Most of what moved moved toward the real league, and the gaps left are now specific lab projects.

Opening week is a milestone for every franchise, and for the sim it is a chance to check the whole picture. Since Vol. 20 we have 8121 new games to read. The Realism index stands at 21 of 22 checks on target (95%), with the other one within striking distance.

This column covers what moved, the three-point story, the glass, and how the league is spreading out. Where a number still sits short of the real league, I say so, and I say what we are measuring next.

REALISM INDEX · 22 CHECKS VS 2025-26 real-league
100%NEAR-real-league
22 / 22
within striking distance
21 / 22
dead on target
Every regular-season game across all HoopSim leagues, measured against the 2025-26 real-league.

Tempo and passing hold their ground

Pace eased from 101.8 to 100.5, which brings it closer to the real league's 99.4. Assists barely moved, from 26.9 to 26.7, which is exactly the real league mark.

WHAT MOVED SINCE VOL. 20
TOWARD THE real-leagueAWAY / FLAT
  • ▼Rebounds43.9 → 43.3real-league 43.8
  • ▼Blocks5.0 → 4.9real-league 4.8
  • ▼Pace101.8 → 100.5real-league 99.4
  • ▼Points / game114.5 → 113.3real-league 115.6
  • ▼Assists26.9 → 26.7real-league 26.7
  • ▼Turnovers13.9 → 13.8real-league 14.5
Before → after, with the real league mark on the right.

Points per game dipped from 114.5 to 113.3, so the gap to the real league's 115.6 widened a little. Turnovers slipped from 13.9 to 13.8 against the real league's 14.5, another small step in the lab's direction to track. Both are on the list for next time.

“The gaps are not failures. They are the next things we get to measure.”

The three-point share has settled

The three-point attempt share has held at 40.5% for four straight columns, after two columns at 40.8%. That is the steadiness I was hoping to see.

3PA SHARE · BY VOLUME▼ −0.3
42.041.541.040.540.039.5real-league 41.5%VOL. 15: 40.8%VOL. 16: 40.8%VOL. 17: 40.5%VOL. 18: 40.5%VOL. 19: 40.5%VOL. 20: 40.5%VOL. 21: 40.5%40.8%40.5%VOL. 15VOL. 17VOL. 19VOL. 21
Every State of the Game so far, all HoopSim leagues vs real-league 2025-26.

The real-league sits at 41.5%, so the gap is a single point and it has been stable. The next thing to measure is whether that one point closes with the rest of the volume picture.

Makes are keeping pace with volume

Three-point accuracy stands at 36.4% against the real league's 36.0%, a small edge we are glad to report. Shooting efficiency and volume are two separate questions, and both are working.

3PA SHARE · BY WEEK▲ +13.1
60%50%40%30%20%10%real-league 41.5%WK OF 10/13: 32.7%10/20: 32.0%10/27: 34.0%11/03: 32.7%11/10: 33.1%11/17: 33.1%11/24: 33.6%12/01: 33.4%12/08: 33.9%12/15: 32.2%12/22: 33.9%12/29: 34.0%01/05: 32.9%01/12: 33.5%01/19: 33.5%01/26: 33.7%02/02: 32.8%02/09: 32.4%02/23: 33.2%03/02: 34.0%03/09: 33.5%03/16: 31.9%03/23: 32.2%10/16: 28.5%10/23: 27.4%10/30: 26.7%11/06: 25.9%11/13: 27.3%11/20: 26.7%11/27: 25.8%12/04: 27.1%12/11: 26.3%12/18: 26.3%12/25: 27.8%01/01: 31.3%01/08: 34.6%01/15: 34.0%01/22: 35.1%01/29: 34.6%02/05: 35.7%02/19: 34.4%02/26: 35.0%03/05: 34.4%03/12: 35.1%03/19: 34.1%03/26: 34.8%04/02: 35.3%10/20: 41.5%10/27: 42.8%11/03: 42.8%11/10: 42.8%11/17: 42.5%10/19: 40.4%10/26: 39.9%11/02: 40.0%11/09: 40.0%11/16: 40.1%11/23: 40.1%11/30: 39.9%12/07: 40.2%12/14: 40.4%12/21: 40.9%12/28: 41.0%01/04: 41.0%01/11: 41.3%01/18: 41.1%01/25: 41.3%02/01: 41.5%02/08: 41.5%02/22: 41.5%03/01: 41.8%03/08: 42.0%03/15: 41.6%03/22: 41.6%03/29: 41.7%04/05: 41.8%10/18: 42.9%10/25: 42.0%11/01: 42.0%11/08: 42.0%11/15: 42.2%11/22: 42.1%11/29: 42.7%12/06: 42.1%12/13: 42.1%12/20: 42.4%12/27: 41.9%01/03: 42.1%01/10: 42.2%01/17: 42.4%01/24: 43.0%01/31: 42.8%02/07: 43.6%02/21: 43.3%02/28: 43.2%03/06: 45.0%03/13: 44.7%03/20: 45.1%03/27: 45.5%04/03: 45.5%10/16: 45.0%10/23: 41.8%10/30: 42.0%11/06: 41.1%11/13: 42.4%11/20: 42.2%11/27: 41.7%12/04: 42.4%12/11: 43.5%12/18: 41.7%12/25: 42.8%01/01: 42.1%01/08: 43.5%01/15: 43.7%01/22: 42.6%01/29: 43.5%02/05: 43.1%02/12: 43.5%02/19: 41.5%02/26: 43.9%03/05: 43.5%03/12: 43.3%03/19: 42.8%03/26: 42.7%04/02: 42.1%10/20: 45.6%10/27: 45.0%11/03: 45.8%11/10: 45.6%11/17: 46.1%11/24: 46.1%12/01: 46.1%12/08: 45.5%12/15: 45.3%12/22: 45.8%12/29: 45.1%01/05: 44.5%01/12: 44.7%01/19: 45.4%01/26: 44.5%02/02: 44.3%02/09: 44.2%02/23: 44.3%03/01: 44.8%03/08: 45.5%03/15: 45.4%03/22: 44.6%03/29: 45.4%04/05: 45.8%32.7%45.8%WK OF 10/1311/3001/0302/0504/05

Weekly readings still swing a good deal across the season, which tells me the calendar of weeks is still settling. I will keep reporting the weekly line so that any real trend shows itself before I call it.

The glass and the rim are close

Rebounds sit at 43.3 against the real league's 43.8, and the offensive rebound rate is 25.0% against the real league's 26.0%. Both are close, and the offensive glass is still the one I am watching most closely.

Blocks are at 4.9, just above the real league's 4.8. The rim is in good shape, and the rebounding gap is a lab project with a clear target.

Contenders, rebuilds and a crowded middle

Across 2729 teams, net ratings run from +39.0 at the top to -39.0 at the bottom, so the range is wide. The top bucket of 15 and above holds 102 teams, and the bottom bucket at -10 and below holds 252.

PARITY · 2729 TEAMS BY NET RATING
≤−10: 252−10…−5: 393−5…0: 6910…5: 7595…10: 37810…15: 15415+: 102252393691759378154102≤−10−10…−5−5…00…55…1010…1515+NET RATING (PTS PER 100 POSSESSIONS)

The largest buckets sit closest to even, in the minus five to plus five middle. That is a crowded middle, and it is where most of the competitive questions get settled.

NEXT WEEK IN THE LAB
1Offensive glass. The offensive rebound rate sits at 25.0% against the real league's 26.0%, and I want to see whether it keeps closing.
2Turnover drift. Turnovers are at 13.8 against the real league's 14.5, and I will track whether the gap keeps narrowing.
3Pace and points. Pace is at 100.5 against the real league's 99.4, and I will check whether scoring follows it toward the real league's 115.6.

Thanks for reading along, and enjoy the first week of games.

— Dr. P

SOURCE: Engine Lab · 41449 regular-season games across all HoopSim leagues · benchmarks: real-league 2025-26