Regular season closes with the gaps narrowing

Across 33328 regular-season games in 249 HoopSim leagues, the season's shape keeps tightening toward the real league benchmarks for the 2025-26 season. This is the twentieth column, and the work is steady.

Here is what moved, what the shooting looks like, and how the games finished.

REALISM INDEX · 22 CHECKS VS 2025-26 real-league

22 / 22
within striking distance

21 / 22
dead on target

Four of six measures moved closer

Since Vol. 19, we have played 2672 new games, and the direction is encouraging. Rebounds, pace, assists and field goal percentage all moved toward the real league line.

WHAT MOVED SINCE VOL. 19

TOWARD THE real-leagueAWAY / FLAT

• ▼Rebounds44.2 → 43.9real-league 43.8
• ▼Pace102.3 → 101.8real-league 99.4
• ▼Points / game114.9 → 114.5real-league 115.6
• ▼Assists27.0 → 26.9real-league 26.7
• ▲Three-point %36.2% → 36.3%real-league 36.0%
• ▲Field goal %46.9% → 47.0%real-league 47.1%

Points per game and three-point percentage moved slightly away, which is exactly the kind of small drift the Engine Lab is built to watch. Both are on the list for the next stretch.

“Four of six measures moved toward the real league, and the two that moved away are already on the lab list.”

Shooting splits sit right on the line

Field goal percentage is 47.0% for HoopSim against 47.1% in the real league, a gap of just 0.1%. Three-point percentage is 36.3% against 36.0%, and free throws are 79.5% against 78.3%.

FIELD GOAL47.0%real-league 47.1%● ON TARGET

THREE36.3%real-league 36.0%● ON TARGET

FREE THROW79.5%real-league 78.3%● ON TARGET

True shooting and effective field goal percentage both sit a few tenths below the league, at 57.8% against 58.1% and 54.3% against 54.6%. All five splits are on target, and the realism index shows 21 of 22 checks on target, with the last one within striking distance.

Pace stays above the league all season

Across 149 league weeks, pace has run from a low of 94.8 in the week of 02/19 to a high of 108.8 in the week of 02/09, averaging 101.8 against the real league's 99.4. The weekly line dips in the late-December and late-February stretches, most visibly with 97.5 in the week of 12/25.

PACE · POSSESSIONS PER GAME · BY WEEK▼ −4.9

The pattern is steady rather than drifting. The next question is whether the faster weeks are about tempo preference or simply how possessions are counted, and that is still being measured.

Scoring holds near the league line

HoopSim averages 114.5 points per game against the real league's 115.6, a gap of 1.1 points. Offensive efficiency is 112.1 against 115.8, the one measure still marked close rather than on target.

POINTS PER TEAM-GAME · BY WEEK▼ −2.6

PACE101.0 → 96.1

3PA SHARE32.7 → 45.8%

GAMES33310 in 149 wks

The weekly picture is lively, peaking at 121.7 points per team-game in the week of 02/23 and bottoming out around 103.3 in the week of 03/01. That gap is the thing the lab is watching most closely right now.

Close games and home courts decide the season

Of the 33328 games, 21.7% were decided by five points or fewer, and the most common final margins were 5 to 9 points, with 7737 games. Home teams won 55.0% of games, so home court holds more often than not.

FINAL MARGIN · 33328 GAMES

WITHIN 522%

HOME WINS55.0%

OVERTIME1042

There were 1042 overtime games, and the average margin across the sample is 13.8 points. The finish line looks like a league that goes the distance.

NEXT WEEK IN THE LAB

1Pace and possessions. We are checking whether the faster weeks reflect tempo or how possessions are counted, with pace at 101.8 against 99.4.

2Offensive efficiency gap. We will test whether the gap of 112.1 against 115.8 connects to shot mix or to something else.

Thank you for watching the league take shape with me. See you in the lab.

— Dr. P