the Game
Win probability, better looks, and your vote
Three things went live today: win probability and a smarter replay on every game, a shot-quality and lineups lab built from the play-by-play, and GM award ballots and mock drafts. Screens and real numbers inside.
Three updates went live today, and each one gives you a new way to read HoopSim. The first changes how you watch a game. The second changes how you judge one. The third gives you a vote.
Part one · Watching a game
Win probability, everywhere a game is
Every game now carries a live win probability. In the live room, your game shows its percentage and a small sparkline of every swing so far. While the night is airing, every card on the wall gets a small percentage too, so you can see at a glance which games are still in doubt.
The room also shows who is in it. The 👀 watching count names the GMs who have the room open right now, and every one of them sees the same night at the same moment.
When a game is final, the box score gets the full chart: the whole game as one line, with the three biggest swings numbered on it and listed underneath. Tap a swing and Court View opens at that exact play.
I care about where the number comes from. The model was fitted only on our own finished games. No outside data, no other league's history. It reads the game, never ratings, and it never changes a result.
A replay you can move around in
Court View now has a timeline under the court. It marks every three, every block, every timeout, every run of 8 or more and every quarter break, and the win probability strip above it follows wherever you are in the replay. Tap any marker to jump straight there. Speed is yours too: ½×, 1×, 2× or 4×.
Spoiler-free mode
Some of you watch your games later and don't want the final waiting for you. Turn on Spoiler-free and the finals stay hidden on game pages until you watch the game or choose to reveal it.
Box score
Highlights
Account- 1Turn it onIn Account › Replays or with the switch in Court View. A hidden game's cover lets you watch, reveal, or turn it off.
- 2What it hidesThe final on box scores and in Court View, the game's Highlights and Recap, and the Highlights of the night, until you watch or tap reveal.
- 3What still shows resultsThe Dash, the Wire, chat and push notifications. It covers the game pages, not the whole league.
Part two · Judging a shot
Expected FG%, from what anyone could see
A make or a miss tells you how one shot ended. It doesn't tell you whether it was a good shot. From today, every shot in HoopSim gets an expected FG%: how often that shot goes in, based only on what anyone watching the game could see. That means the type of shot, where it was taken, the play that set it up and how late in the possession it came.
It never looks at ratings. Two players taking the same shot from the same spot off the same action get the same expected value, and the difference between that and what they actually make is theirs.
The model is refit every month on every finished game, and the numbers update after every sim night. Across both leagues this season the looks and the makes line up almost exactly. That tells me the model is honest on average. What it shows you is where your team sits around that average.
Four new numbers
- 1Points per look (PTS/LOOK)What your shots are worth for an average shooter. It measures the shot, not the shooter.
- 2Shot makingHow much better or worse than expected you finish those looks. This is where the shooters show.
- 3Good looks missedShots worth 55% or better for an average shooter that didn't fall. This season a third of good looks across both leagues missed.
- 4Tough shots madeHard shots that went in anyway. About one in five shots is a tough one, and about a third of those drop.
You will find them in three places. The box score has a team strip that shows each side's expected points per shot next to what they actually made, plus an xPTS column for every player. Every player card has a Shot Quality section with the same numbers and a breakdown by zone. And Team › Stats shows your shot quality for and against, with your rank in the league.
Box score
Player
Team statsLineups, for every team
There is a new Lineups tab under Team, for your team and every other team. It shows your best five, your most-used fives, best and worst units, two-man pairs, on/off numbers for every player, and points per possession against man, zone and press. The man, zone and press splits are exact from today on. Games played before today are approximated.
Lineups
Vs defenses
Depth ChartYour best five also comes to where you set your lineup. A Best five so far note sits on your Depth Chart, on the Rotation chart, and on the Depth page on a computer, so the data is in front of you when you choose.
Part three · Your vote
GM award ballots
From this season the GMs vote on the awards. The ballot opens the day the playoffs start and closes when Awards Night begins.
Ballot
The field- 1What you rankMVP top 5. Rookie, Defensive Player, Sixth Man, Most Improved and Coach of the Year top 3 each. All-League: three teams of five.
- 2Who you can't vote forYour own players and your own coach.
- 3How it countsHalf the result is the GMs' vote share, half is the media's stat ballot.
- 4What it pays+25 PP for a full ballot, and +10 PP for every #1 pick of yours that wins.
On Awards Night the ballots are revealed: who voted for whom, plus the hot take of the night.
Mock drafts
When the lottery is drawn, every GM can mock the 14 lottery picks. You build it from your own scouting only. Players your scouts haven't seen show the public consensus. Mocks lock when the draft starts and stay sealed until pick 1, so nobody can copy yours. Marcus Bellini publishes the Wire's mock alongside yours. It gets scored with the rest, but it isn't ranked.
Your mock
Picks
When they open
Neither has opened yet in any league. Ballots open the day your league's playoffs start. Mock drafts open when the lottery is drawn after the Finals. You will get an inbox note and a push when each one opens.
“Watch it back, judge the shot, cast your vote.”
Watch a game back with the timeline, look at your team's shot numbers, and tell me what you find.
— Dr. Possession