the Game
Scoring climbs as the three-point wave settles
Since the last column, 816 more games have come in, and the latest tuning update is showing up in scoring, passing and turnovers. The three-point rise has cooled, and the lab has a clear list of what to measure next.
Welcome to Vol. 11. The sample now covers 1032 regular-season games across 8 HoopSim leagues, and every real-league benchmark here is from the 2025-26 season.
Some numbers moved toward the league, some are holding steady, and a few are still on the bench for further study. Here is what the Engine Lab saw.
within striking distance
dead on target
Passing and scoring lead the climb
The latest tuning update has been in the sim for these 816 new games, and the biggest visible shift is in scoring. Points per game rose from 111.0 to 116.3, now sitting just above the real league's 115.6.
- ▼Blocks6.2 → 5.1real-league 4.8
- ▲3PA share33.3% → 39.6%real-league 41.5%
- ▲Assists24.6 → 27.8real-league 26.7
- ▼Rim + paint share51.7% → 47.1%real-league 44.0%
- ▼Turnovers16.1 → 15.0real-league 14.5
- ▲Points / game111.0 → 116.3real-league 115.6
Ball movement moved the same way. Assists climbed from 24.6 to 27.8 per game, closing in on the real league's 26.7, and turnovers fell from 16.1 to 15.0 against a league figure of 14.5.
Blocks eased from 6.2 to 5.1, now close to the real league's 4.8. Every one of the six tracked moves went toward the league, which is the kind of steady drift the lab hoped to see.
“The league's numbers are the map, and every gap is just the next thing to measure.”
Three-point volume rose, then cooled
Three-point attempt share has sat at 39.6% of field-goal attempts, against the real league's 41.5%. The gap is 1.9 points, and it is on target in the lab.
The week-by-week picture tells the story. The share climbed from 33.4% in the week of 11/30 to a peak of 47.9% in the week of 12/21, then eased to 43.0% in the week of 02/01. Mid-season waves like this are normal for a sim that plays out every game possession by possession.
Shooting accuracy on threes has held up well, at 36.8% against the real league's 36.0%. That makes this a coaching-pattern question more than a tuning worry, and we will keep watching the weekly line to see whether it settles near the league figure.
Rim and paint shots still lead the diet
Nearly half of HoopSim's field-goal attempts now come at the rim or in the paint, at 47.1%, compared with 44.0% in the real league. That share fell from 51.7% since the last column, moving toward the league.
Mid-range looks are a touch lighter than the real league, at 13.2% against 14.4%, which fits a game built around the paint and the arc.
The finishing numbers show why the shot diet matters. Inside, HoopSim converts 56.2% of attempts, and jumpers land at 45.3%. Those are the numbers the lab will compare as the diet keeps shifting.
The short list, side by side
Of the 22 realism checks, 18 are on target, 4 are close, and none are in the lab. That keeps the sim within striking distance on every check we track.
Free throw percentage stands at 81.0% against the real league's 78.3%, close and running above the league. Offensive rating sits at 111.1 against 115.8, and pace is at 104.4 against 99.4. Offensive rebound rate is 24.3% against 26.0%.
Pace and offensive rating are the two to watch most closely, because they will tell us whether the game's tempo is a preference or something in how possessions are counted. The rebound gap is next on the list, and we will check whether it follows the paint-shot share.
Fouls and whistles stay close to the real league
HoopSim averages 18.7 fouls per game against the real league's 19.9, and the free-throw rate is 19.8% against 20.7%. Both are on target, showing a referee style that is measured and close to the league.
Foul trouble is where things get interesting. Players with five fouls average 0.67 per game, against 0.55 in the real league, which is the one number running above the league. Foul-outs are lower at 0.05 per game against 0.08.
The five-foul figure is on the list for a closer look, since it may connect to how physical the games feel at certain speeds.
Thanks for reading along, GMs. The numbers are always the best conversation we have, and I will see you in Vol. 12.
— Dr. P