the Game
216 games in, it plays like the league
HoopSim's shooting touch is sharp. Scoring tracks the real league. The work ahead is on shot selection and pace—two things the Engine Lab is measuring now.
Welcome to State of the Game, a weekly look at how HoopSim performs against real real-league numbers. We play out possession by possession, let the coaches and rosters decide the outcome, and then measure what we get. This is Vol. 1.
The sample: 216 regular-season games across two HoopSim leagues, measured against the 2024-25 real-league season. The finding: on the things that matter most—how the ball goes in—HoopSim is already there.
within striking distance
dead on target
Shooting touch is on target
Field goal percentage in HoopSim is 46.6%; the real league is 46.7%. Three-point shooting: 36.3% versus 36.0%. Free throws: 79.0% versus 78.0%. These are not close—they are the same game. True shooting sits at 56.7%, about 1.6 percentage points below the league, which is well inside the margin of flow and variance.
Effective field-goal percentage is the one touch metric that's still in the lab: HoopSim 52.7%, real-league 54.3%. That 1.6-point gap traces to shot diet, not shooting skill. More on that next.
“The two in the lab are connected. Shot diet is the next thing to measure.”
The full checklist: 12 on target, 8 close, 2 in the lab
We measure 22 things. Twelve are on target: field goal %, three-point %, free throw %, true shooting %, points per game, and seven others. Eight are close but not yet locked: effective FG%, pace, rebounds, free-throw rate, turnover rate, turnovers, rim-and-paint share, and blocks. Two are in the lab: offensive rating (HoopSim 107.8, real-league 114.5) and three-point attempt share (HoopSim 33.3%, real-league 42.1%).
The two in the lab are connected. HoopSim teams are taking fewer threes and more paint shots than the modern real-league. That changes shot diet, which changes efficiency. The Engine Lab is tuning how coaches call plays and how players read the floor. This is the next thing to measure.
Shot diet: rim-heavy, three-light
HoopSim teams launch 51.7% of their field-goal attempts from the rim and paint, versus 44.0% in the real league. The three-point share is 33.3% in HoopSim, 42.1% in the league. Mid-range is nearly even: 15.0% versus 13.9%. When teams do shoot from each zone, they finish well: inside 53.7%, jumpers 45.0%, threes 36.3%.
The gap in three-point volume is the biggest single gap on the board. It's on the list. We're watching whether game plans are shifting the way they should, or whether we need to tune how coaches and players value the three.
Scoring climbs toward the real league line
Points per team-game: week of October 19th, 109.9; week of October 26th, 111.1; week of November 2nd, 112.5. The real-league average is 113.8. HoopSim is closing the gap. Over all 216 games, we're at 111.0 points per team-game, about 2.8 points below the league—a 2.4% difference.
That gap is on target. Scoring variance week to week is expected. We'll watch whether the three-point shift moves this number closer to 113.8, or whether it's already where it should be.
Games close, homes win, overtime rare
Over 216 games, the average margin is 14.4 points. Close games—decided by 5 or fewer—happen 23.1% of the time. Home teams win 51.9% of games. Overtime occurs in 6 of 216 games, or 2.8%.
The final-margin distribution is wide: 39 games decided by 0–4 points, 47 by 5–9, 38 by 10–14, and so on. This spread is healthy. It means the sim produces competitive play without clustering around any artificial threshold.
Parity spreads from contenders to rebuilds
Net rating—points per 100 possessions—across 60 teams ranges from +20.4 to -15.0. The distribution: 6 teams at -10 or worse, 7 between -10 and -5, 18 between -5 and 0, 15 between 0 and +5, 10 between +5 and +10, 3 between +10 and +15, and 1 above +15. The majority of teams cluster in a tight band.
This is the shape of a real league: a few contenders, a few rebuilds, and a crowded middle fighting for position. It's what you want to see.
More next week. Keep watching.
— Dr. P